The use and adoption of drones has increased even though the pandemic slowed travel and commerce and diverted the resources of law enforcement agencies worldwide. D-Fend Solutions’ chief marketing officer, Jeffrey Starr, predicts how the counter-drone landscape is set to evolve in 2021.
2021 is expected to witness a widespread adoption of COVID-19 vaccines. The vaccines may finally end the global pandemic that slowed international travel and commerce, emptied stadiums and arenas, and diverted the attention of security agencies worldwide.Â
Meanwhile, the continued growth and widened adoption of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) will continue as drones become more widely adopted in downstream applications. Here are six predictions for the counter-drone space race in 2021.
1. The Drone Driver – Application Proliferation
With the pandemic hopefully winding down, pent-up demand for drone applications across multiple industries will finally be unleashed. Practically no sector will be untouched by drones, with breakthrough innovations stimulating significant adoption in diverse fields such as cargo shipping, conservation, healthcare, insurance, search and rescue, surveillance, inspection, surveying, disaster relief, agriculture, manufacturing, and construction, to name just some of the most active sectors.
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2. More Drones & Airtime = More Collisions & Crime
Airports, borders, critical infrastructure, stadiums, and arenas will also see a spike in drone usage in 2021.
But more drones in the sky could mean a significant increase in collisions and crime. According to FAA’s reports, there are more than 200 drone sightings a month Opens a new window at and around airports, and pilot-reported near-collisions with a UAV now account for more than half of all reported incidents at airports. Both types of interactions will almost certainly rise from their current COVID-19 levels as the economy rebounds and air traffic resumes. (See the drone incident tracker hereOpens a new window .)
Additionally, the return of crowded spaces, commerce, and travel, along with the return of enterprise drones, will increase the ability and motivation of malicious actors to carry out acts of terror or crime with drones. The need for a strong counter-drone defense, as well as increased vigilance, will rise proportionally in the coming year.
3. Drone Danger Is Defined & Differentiated
Until recently, the drone threat has often been discussed as if all drones pose an equal danger. New approaches have started to take a much more sophisticated and discriminating approach in assessing the risks. Commercial drones that can travel long distances and carry heavy payloads represent one kind of threat, do it yourself (DIY) drones are a different danger, and smaller, Wi-Fi-based drones can be viewed through a different prism.
Certain drones are more likely to be used by bad actors for terror or crime, while others may pose a danger of an accident by reckless users. Security professionals safeguarding a site’s airspace will analyze and assess key inputs in determining the best rogue, counter-drone strategy and technologies.
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4. Counter-Drone Goes Local
Counter-drone defenses are finally going local. 2021 will be the year that major metropolitan city governments realize that no one will fully protect and defend their airspace, so they need to do it themselves.Â
Local security authorities will better fortify their airports and transportation centers against the threat of rogue drones by installing counter-drone technology and UAV traffic management. Counter-drone defense will go local, and as a result, will become more intuitive and accessible for local law enforcement and first responders.
5. Traditional Technologies Cease Being the Core Component in Sensitive Environments
Following a decade of steady upticks in drone incidents in the public sphere – including airports, critical infrastructure facilities, stadiums, prisons, and even VIP events – we will see increased vigilance.Â
This will include expanded awareness about the risks from rogue drones and disruption from traditional counter-drone defense methods based on jamming and kinetic approaches. Both defense methods run the risk of collateral damage from either a projectile or a falling drone, insensitive sites, or densely populated urban locations.
6. A Shift from Reactive to Proactive
Security agencies and private enterprises will adopt a broader set of tools and systems to counter varied rogue drone threats. Counter-drone defense has been largely based on traditional military C-UAV kinetic and jamming methods. Still, the coming years will see a shift toward smarter and more proactive surgical methods that remove threats from airspace and safely and seamlessly defend sites before a crisis unfolds.
New technologies, such as RF-based cyber takeover, present elegant and surgically-precise solutions to dismantle rogue drones and eliminate threats without the risk of collateral damage or the need to destroy the drone.
As drones become smaller, quieter, and more durable, the need for such technology is heightened. Security agencies need better control and clear methods to handle drone incidents that diffuse incidents rather than exacerbate them. Drone technology is only going to get smarter this year. So, counter-drone technology will need to stay a drone threat ahead.
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2021 as a Counter-Drone Milestone
2021 promises to be a year where the rogue drone threat makes a comeback, but the counter-drone world steps up to confront the complex threat with more sophisticated countermeasures. Drones will optimize operations and transform societies in an increasingly wide set of applications, crowding the skies and escalating the chances of collision, crime, and terror.Â
Local authorities will gradually become more empowered to contend with the threat. security teams across sectors will move beyond jamming and shooting to adopt next-generation, discerning and proactive technologies for greater safety, control, and continuity over their sites and airspace.
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