Over the past decade, smartphones have transformed the movement of wireless data, and the best mobile networks are evolving to keep pace. The next generation, which will arrive on a commercial basis early in the next decade but is already being rolled out in test locations, will represent a quantum leap in terms of speed and usability.
There are more than five billion smartphones worldwide, but at present all the data they create, access and exchange – which now include movies, photos and output generated by connectable devices – are sharing the lower radio frequency spectrum of the existing 3G and 4G mobile data networks. The resulting demand for vastly increased spectrum capacity has prompted the development of a fifth-generation – 5G – network standard.
The future availability of 5G mobile networks promises a transformational increase in speed. Whereas 4G networks typically deliver data within about 70 milliseconds, the 5G network will deliver in less than a single millisecond, enabling downloading speeds of up to 20 gigabits per second, compared with one gigabit per second on the 4G network.
Evolution and Potential of 5G Technology
The development of 5G is the latest step in the evolving ways that radio waves, discovered in 1880, can be used. The 3G network opened the door to modern smartphone technology and mobile data networks, in turn fueling growth in the use of e-mail and GPS navigation, weather reports and social networking.
The introduction of the 4G network standard in 2009 has made possible the streaming of movies, social media and other types of video content using the 2.6 GHz wavelength, thanks to dual-band wi-fi routers to increase capacity. However, the ongoing growth in the use of smartphones and the introduction of other wireless devices over the past decade again has made overcrowding of the frequency an issue.
To sidestep today’s congestion, a key feature of the proposed 5G mobile networks will be the use of a higher set of frequencies known as millimeter wave spectrum between 30 and 300 GHz. These wavelengths, sandwiched between microwave and infrared frequencies, had not been used previously because of the short-range limit of the wavelengths. The resulting lack of strength of the waves meant that they could be blocked by buildings or absorbed by other obstructions, even raindrops.
To work around these short transmission paths and high propagation losses, the architecture of 5G networks will require small cell transmitters roughly 500 feet apart. The transmitters themselves are small antennas, roughly the size of a football. To overcome the short range limit, they will need to be located both inside and around buildings. While the cost and time required to install these transmitters has slowed the roll-out of 5G, the short transmission paths will also limit the risk of interference between transmission locations.
While the necessary antennas are being added to the networks, several providers initially will offer a preliminary 5G system that uses the new technology: high-frequency millimeter waves, a technology known as beam-forming, and massive multiple-input and multiple-output (MIMO) technologies as antennas capable of transmission at the higher frequencies, improving coverage, especially indoors.
5G and the Internet of Things
Enthusiasts for 5G say its introduction will be akin to the birth of the internet, facilitating a host of potentially disruptive technologies. Its lightning-fast speed will bolster the boom already underway in the connectable devices popularly known as the Internet of Things.
The new 5G standard will make communication significantly fasterOpens a new window and more functional between people and their environment and devices, boosting demand for devices such as smart meters to regulate home temperatures or smart water pitchers that re-order filters.
The 5G network will also support machine-to-machine communication, virtual reality entertainment and the communication and reliability necessary to enable remote surgery. It also will make long-distance education significantly more widespread, while delivering a significant boost to driverless car technology, improving the ability of vehicles to respond to real-time conditions.
5G Mobile Network Installation Race
The 5G market is expected to offer a major source of business opportunity, generating up to $250 billion in service revenue a year by 2025, according to Juniper Research.
But while 5G could be a goldmine for network providers, these companies will need to add thousands of additional antennas for the high-band frequencies used by the standard.
In the US, the large wireless companies are in a race to get their small towers up and position themselves as leaders of the 5G upgrade. T-Mobile announced in January that it plans to be the first to introduce a 5G network nationally, and intends to construct 5G capacity this year in 30 cities, including Dallas. Sprint is already building 5G in six cities and plans to launch operation of the systems in early 2019. Verizon is planning its first 5G roll-out in Sacramento. AT&T has also announced its first 5G commercial networks will be deployed in Atlanta, Dallas and Waco sometime late this year.
The Federal Communications Commission is also trying to speed development by offering up some of the highest-speed frequencies, announcing in February plans to auction off two portions of the high-frequency airwaves that can be used for 5G development. The two auctions require congressional approval by May 13. If all goes according to schedule, an auction of spectrum in the 28 GHz band will take place in November, followed by an auction of spectrum in the 24 GHz band.
China Looks for Dominance
China is also working hard to be the first to launch a 5G network, as part of the government’s long-term strategy to leverage its technology advances eventually to dominate the high-tech space. The authorities plan to spend more than $400 billion on the national 5G network infrastructure by 2030, forecasting that it will have 32 million users by 2019 and 588 million by 2022. One of the country’s leading mobile phone companies, China Mobile, has announced that it will be ready to offer commercial 5G to customers by 2019.
A study by research firm Analysys Mason for US wireless trade association CTIA says all major Chinese providers have committed to specific launch dates and the government has committed to allocate spectrum for the carriers. Its analysts say China is now slightly ahead of South Korea and the US in the race to deploy 5G networks, with Japan also in the leading bracket of countries.
Washington’s fears about the possible technological dominance from China have played a role in several companies, including Huawei, being blocked from making acquisitions in the US on national security grounds. Concern about China’s progress also prompted the US government in March this year to veto the purchase of Qualcomm, which helped develop wireless chip technology for 3G and 4G networks, by Singapore-based digital semiconductor producer Broadcom. The Trump administration has also considered a proposal to nationalize the US 5G network in order to speed development, although it is not expected to do so.
Impact of 5G Networks
The introduction of 5G technologyOpens a new window is expected to lead to rapid growth of the mobile hotspot and modem market, as businesses begin to abandon fixed mobile broadband in favor of much faster mobile connections.
The build-up of 5G networks and 5G phones will benefit infrastructure companies such as Nokia and Ericsson – two of the original leaders in the digital mobile phone market in the 1990s. There will also be opportunities for producers of mobile devices and the chips that power them, including Samsung, Intel, Qualcomm, Huawei, and ZTE, which are all developing equipment that can use the 5G data network by 2019.
There will probably be no shortage of political battles, especially over the location of the small-cell transmission facilities, as property values and rural access issues run up against against the ambitions of the big internet service providers to gain a commanding share of the 5G mobile market.