Artificial intelligence, robotics and the fourth industrial revolution are setting the stage for a massive, global expansion in job creation, according to a new report released by the World Economic ForumOpens a new window .
Entitled “The Future of JobsOpens a new window â€, the report predicts that although the new technology will wipe out 75 million jobs worldwide by 2022, 133 million new jobs will be created in their place. The Swiss organization behind the annual agenda-setting Davos summit claims that on the whole, the robot revolution will by far deliver a net positive contribution to employment.
Smooth Sailing or Storms Ahead?
The WEF’s rosy assessment stands in stark contrast to forecasts of a jobs apocalypse, fueled by the rise of AI and robotics. In August, the Bank of England’s chief economist warned of widespread unemployment caused by technology as AI renders jobs obsolete. A 2013 study by Oxford academics Carl Frey and Michael Osborne predicted that 47% of American jobs are at high risk of being automated.
Simultaneously, research by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) suggested these fears were overblownOpens a new window , with just 14% of jobs in OECD countries (including the US, Canada and UK) “highly automatable.†Even so, its research predicts 66 million jobs vaporized and claims the technological revolution is especially damaging to low-skilled and young workers.
These varying estimates prove one thing for sure: Making predictions about the future of employment is a tough game. However, experts agree on the need for training and development to prepare workers for the coming changes.
Targeted Sectors for Change
The WEF accepts that the changes are likely to bring widespread disruption, noting that a net increase in jobs is not a “foregone conclusion,†but that adding that the net employment gains “entail difficult transitions for millions of workers and the need for proactive investment in developing a new surge of agile learners and skilled talent globally.†The study forecasts that humans will be replaced by robots in fields such as accounting, client management and industrial, postal and clerical sectors.
The report does, however foresee a significant rise in “human†jobs that require distinctively human skills: customer service workers, sales and marketing, training and development and people and culture. There will be accelerated demand for technical roles such as AI and machine learning specialists, security analysts and robotics engineers.
New Era Concerns
To be sure, any long-term forecast about the economy is open to question and fear over the onset of AI and robotics runs deep. A survey of the UK publicOpens a new window by New Scientist Live found 51% of respondents worried about AI destroying jobs, and 37% believed that AI would drive social inequality.
Elon Musk, and other leaders in the AI field, have warned of dire consequences for humanity if AI is given free reign. These fears could feed a growing backlash against the technology of the fourth industrial revolution: Populist leaders could indeed wave these issues in order to build an electoral platform.
The rejection by European consumers of genetically modified organisms in food after a sustained campaign by green groups in the early 2000s shows how public opinion can swing against new technology.
Training for the New World
The chief problem with automation, according to the WEF, is the challenge faced by workers to retrain for new roles after their jobs are reassigned to AI. The think tank has urged governments and businesses to undertake colossal retraining programs as well as the creation of new safety nets to help ease public anxiety about AI-triggered social change.
Promoters of AI solutions should outline a plausible vision of why and how the technology will create a better society.